美国《华尔街日报》网站7月9日文章】题:中国与美国:哪个是发展中国家? 作者微软前首席运营官罗伯特·赫博尔德)
前不久我从洛杉矶飞往中国,参加了在上海举行的一个企业董事会会议,并在上海和北京会晤了—些客户和政府官员。 那次行程结束后,想想美国和中国,我真不确定哪一个是发达国家,哪一个是发展中国家。
基础设施:洛杉矶正在日益衰败。它的机场又小又脏,小到无法应付它试图接待的客流,而且年久失修。相比之下,北京和上海的机场则崭新而干净,大到令人难以置信。它们是为了应对当今全球商业活动所必需的巨大航空客流量而精心设计的。
走在通往机场的洛杉矶环城公路上,那里的破败状况也会令你感到震惊。相比之下,上海、北京等中国大城市的基础设施绝对是最先进的,而且相对较新。在中国,消费者每年要购买1800万辆汽车,而美国为1100万辆。中国正在努力修建道路,以跟上民众对于汽车的巨大需求。
中国目前拥有8000公里高速铁路,其中刚刚开通的京沪高铁无疑是“皇冠上的明珠”。现在从北京到上海的1300公里路程只需要不到5个小时。不妨对比一下日渐衰败的美国铁路客运公司。
政府领导人:这方面的差距大得惊人。在我们与中国的4个不同客户以及4个不同政府部门代表举行的每一次会议上,东道主在开始陈述时都会先简要介绍一下中国的新五年规划。这几拨人都提醒我们,新五年规划有3个重点:推进国内创新;在环境保护方面取得巨大进展;继续创造就业机会,雇用从农村转移到城市的大量人口。你能想像美国国会和总统拿出一项一致的五年规划并(像中国通常所做的那样)真正付诸实施吗?
中国五年规划中各方面目标的具体程度给人留下了深刻印象。例如,中国计划到2016年将碳排放量减少17%。同时,中国的高技术产业在国家经济中所占的比重将从目前的3%扩大到15%。
政府财政:说实话,这个话题令人尴尬。中国在管理经济时的谨慎令人难以置信,而且还坐拥数万亿美元外汇储备。相比之下:美国政府多年来的财政管理工作十分糟糕,对—场可能出现的希腊式灾难不当回事。
技术与创新:为了让你们感受到中国在技术创新领域获得全球竞争力的决心,请让我引用我们造访过的两家机构的一些统计数据。在过去10年中,中国科学院生物物理研究所得到了政府大量投资,如今,生物物理研究所拥有众多优秀科学家,主要从事蛋白质组学、脑科学、认知科学等领域的世界水平研究工作。
我们还造访了中科院下属的上海高等研究院。这个巨大的科技园区正在建设中。上海高等研究院将全部由博士水平的研究人员组成。他们的目标陈述相当直白:成为与商业相关的新技术研发先锋。
中科院下属各家研究机构全都将大幅扩大规模,而人员构成将得到一项名为“千人计划”的新人才引进计划的补充。这是中国吸引留学并定居海外的中国学者回国的一项努力。这项新五年计划的目标是今后五年内每年吸引2000名此类人才回国。
说了这么多,我想你们应该明白为什么我会提出这个根本性的问题:哪一个是发展中国家,哪一个是发达国家?接下来的问题是:为什么会出现这种情况?美国该怎么办?
让我们面对现实吧:我们被超越是因为美国政府好像总是无法取得重大进展。问题总是很快引发分化,而媒体会进一步加剧分化,需要极端观点才能引起注意和吸引更多人的关注。中国领导人则能够很快办成事情。
对策是什么?华盛顿的政客和美国选民应该迅速意识到自己正在被超越,需要作出巨大改变,使美国重回正轨:纠正预算和政府津贴负担等问题,实施一项积极进取的削减债务五年规划,着手批准一些制胜的计划。醒醒吧,美国!
Recently I flew from Los Angeles to China to attend a corporate board-of-directors meeting in Shanghai, as well as customer and government visits there and in Beijing. After the trip was over, in thinking about the United States and China, it was not clear to me which is the developed, and which is the developing, country.
Infrastructure: Let's face it, Los Angeles is decaying. Its airport is cramped and dirty, too small for the volume it tries to handle and in a state of disrepair. In contrast, the airports in Beijing and Shanghai are brand new, clean and incredibly spacious, with friendly, courteous staff galore. They are extremely well-designed to handle the large volume of air traffic needed to carry out global business these days.
In traveling the highways around Los Angeles to get to the airport, you are struck by the state of disrepair there, too. Of course, everyone knows California is bankrupt and that is probably the reason why. In contrast, the infrastructure in the major Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Beijing is absolute state-of-the-art and relatively new.
The congestion in the two cities is similar. In China, consumers are buying 18 million cars per year compared to 11 million in the U.S. China is working hard building roads to keep up with the gigantic demand for the automobile.
The just-completed Beijing to Shanghai high-speed rail link, which takes less than five hours for the 800-mile trip, is the crown jewel of China's current 5,000 miles of rail, set to grow to 10,000 miles in 2020. Compare that to decaying Amtrak.
The just-completed Beijing to Shanghai high-speed rail link is the crown jewel of China's current 5,000 miles of rail.
Government Leadership: Here the differences are staggering. In every meeting we attended, with four different customers of our company as well as representatives from four different arms of the Chinese government, our hosts began their presentation with a brief discussion of China's new five-year-plan. This is the 12th five-year plan and it was announced in March 2011. Each of these groups reminded us that the new five-year plan is primarily focused on three things: 1) improving innovation in the country; 2) making significant improvements in the environmental footprint of China; and 3) continuing to create jobs to employ large numbers of people moving from rural to urban areas. Can you imagine the U.S. Congress and president emerging with a unified five-year plan that they actually achieve (like China typically does)?
The specificity of China's goals in each element of the five-year plan is impressive. For example, China plans to cut carbon emissions by 17% by 2016. In the same time frame, China's high-tech industries are to grow to 15% of the economy from 3% today.
Government Finances: This topic is, frankly, embarrassing. China manages its economy with incredible care and is sitting on trillions of dollars of reserves. In contrast, the U.S. government has managed its financials very poorly over the years and is flirting with a Greece-like catastrophe.
Human Rights/Free Speech: In this area, our American view is that China has a ton of work to do. Their view is that we are nuts for not blocking pornography and antigovernment points-of-view from our youth and citizens.
Technology and Innovation: To give you a feel for China's determination to become globally competitive in technology innovation, let me cite some statistics from two facilities we visited. Over the last 10 years, the Institute of Biophysics, an arm of the Chinese Academy of Science, has received very significant investment by the Chinese government. Today it consists of more than 3,000 talented scientists focused on doing world-class research in areas such as protein science, and brain and cognitive sciences.
We also visited the new Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, another arm of the Chinese Academy of Science. This gigantic science and technology park is under construction and today consists of four buildings, but it will grow to over 60 buildings on a large piece of land equivalent to about a third of a square mile. It is being staffed by Ph.D.-caliber researchers. Their goal statement is fairly straightforward: "To be a pioneer in the development of new technologies relevant to business."
All of the various institutes being run by the Chinese Academy of Science are going to be significantly increased in size, and staffing will be aided by a new recruiting program called "Ten Thousand Talents." This is an effort by the Chinese government to reach out to Chinese individuals who have been trained, and currently reside, outside China. They are focusing on those who are world-class in their technical abilities, primarily at the Ph.D. level, at work in various universities and science institutes abroad. In each year of this new five-year plan, the goal is to recruit 2,000 of these individuals to return to China.
Reasons and Cure: Given all of the above, I think you can see why I pose the fundamental question: Which is the developing country and which is the developed country? The next questions are: Why is this occurring and what should the U.S. do?
Let's face it—we are getting beaten because the U.S. government can't seem to make big improvements. Issues quickly get polarized, and then further polarized by the media, which needs extreme viewpoints to draw attention and increase audience size. The autocratic Chinese leadership gets things done fast (currently the autocrats seem to be highly effective).
What is the cure? Washington politicians and American voters need to snap to and realize they are getting beaten—and make big changes that put the U.S. back on track: Fix the budget and the burden of entitlements; implement an aggressive five-year debt-reduction plan, and start approving some winning plans. Wake up, America!
Mr. Herbold, a retired chief operating officer of Microsoft Corporation, is the managing director of The Herbold Group, LLC and author of "What's Holding You Back? Ten Bold Steps That Define Gutsy Leaders" (Wiley/Jossey-Bass, 2011).