ELECTORAL OUTLOOK2012Based on HuffPost Pollster charts and analysisRomney191ELECTORAL VOTESObama323ELECTORAL VOTES
作者:Dr.OlympiaLiu 时间:2012年09月24日 06:04 查看全文
一剪梅发布于 2012-09-26 09:4320 楼#
I disagree with you on the government's role. I do believe government has responsibility to setup a minimum safety net for orphans, elderly, disabled (mental or physical). As rich as America, it's a shame to leave these people perish/languish on their own or under the mercy of some voluntary charity. That's not a modern, civilized society should be. Even elephants wouldn't leave their crippled ones behind. We human beings should be better than elephants. The problem is we include too many people under our safety net, almost up to the 47%. That's obviously an abuse. We should tighten up the safety net coverage, and fix the tax loopholes/unfairness to the super rich. This way the losers spend less, the winners cough out more, so we middle class can get a real big break. Right ow, middle class are screwed both front and back and a t the verge of collasping.
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Dr.OlympiaLiu发布于 2012-09-26 06:5019 楼#
The current view of the 2012 presidential election.<br><p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.0pt;mso-outline-level:2"><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333;text-transform:uppercase">BARACK OBAMA</span></b><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333;text-transform:uppercase"> </span></b><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333;text-transform:uppercase">MITT ROMNEY</span></b><br><p style="margin-bottom:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.0pt;mso-outline-level:2"><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#333333;text-transform:uppercase"> </span></b><br><p style="margin-bottom:0.0001pt;vertical-align:top;"><b><span style="font-size:40.5pt;color:#5C6B95">343</span></b><b><span style="font-size:40.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#5C6B95"> </span></b><b><span style="font-size:40.5pt;color:#BC5C5C">191</span></b><span style="font-size:9.0pt;color:#1E1F20;mso-no-proof:yes"></span><br><br>WASHINGTON -- Americans are more confident in the economy than they have been in seven months, an encouraging sign for President Barack Obama with six weeks left in the presidential race.<br>A new survey of consumer confidence rose Tuesday (09/25/12) to its highest level since February on expectations that hiring will soon pick up. And a separate report showed home values rising steadily, signaling sustained improvement in housing.<br>"This is like an opinion poll on the economy without the political parties attached," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics, a consulting firm. The confidence survey "says people are feeling better. If so, they are less likely to vote for change."<br>The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence shot up in September. The jump surprised many economists because the most recent hiring and retail sales figures have been sluggish.<br>The increased confidence could help explain recent polls that show Obama with a widening lead over Mitt Romney in some battleground states.<br>The consumer confidence index is closely watched because consumer spending drives nearly 70 percent of economic activity. The index jumped from 61.3 for August to 70.3 for September. It remains well below 90, the level that is thought to signify a healthy economy.<br>Economists point to some key reasons why consumers have grown more confident.<br>Stocks are up: The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has surged nearly 15 percent this year. Gas prices have leveled off after rising for several months. And the broad increase in home prices is likely giving would-be buyers more confidence. When prices rise, buyers don't worry so much that a home might lose value after they bought it.<br>National home prices rose 1.2 percent in July compared with a year ago, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday. That was the second straight month in which year-over-year home prices have increased.<br>Some economists question whether the higher level of confidence is sustainable. They've seen the index spike briefly before since the Great Recession ended more than three years ago. Some say confidence could be affected by negative campaign ads that focus on the economy.<br>But others note that even a weak economy doesn't feel so bad to many consumers once it begins to make steady improvement.<br>"The economy is perceived in relative rather than absolute terms," noted St. Louis University political scientist and pollster Ken Warren.<br>Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, suggests that former President Bill Clinton might have helped boost confidence with his rousing speech on Obama's behalf at the Democratic National Convention in early September. The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey was conducted Sept. 1-13.<br>Clinton "rekindled memories of better economic times" and assured voters that the U.S. economy was on the right track, Vitner said.<br>The rising home prices could also help Obama's prospects. Prices are rising in many large cities in swing states such as Florida, Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina. Prices have risen 3.6 percent in Tampa, Fla., in the past year, for example. And they're up 5.4 percent in Denver, 6.2 percent in Detroit and 2.2 percent in Charlotte, N.C.<br>A Washington Post poll out Tuesday showed Obama leading Romney among likely voters in Ohio, 52 to 44 percent. The president also had a slight edge in Florida, 51 to 47 percent among those most likely to vote.<br>Obama is also gaining the upper hand on which candidate is better able to handle the economy. Registered voters in Ohio preferred Obama on the economy by 50 percent to 43 percent, and in Florida by 49 percent to 45 percent.
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</font><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'>to </span><span style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: SimSun;" lang="ZH-CN">一剪梅</span><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana;'>,</span><br><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana;'></span><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></span> <br><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'>Yes I am
the same person. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of the time, I
don't like to get involved in 168 since majority the discussions here are
uncivil. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hoever, I do enjoy to discuss
with someone like you though.</span><br><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'><o:p></o:p></span> <br><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'>I am an independent,
fiscal conservative and socially liberal guy. I don't care much about all these
"God Loving", anti abortion, gay hater social conservatives. I
believe that everyone should be entitled to their freedom as long as their
freedom no infringed with other people's rights. So you can love your God, but
don't tell everyone else to do so with you.</span><br><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'><o:p></o:p></span> <br><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'>On the
fiscal issue, I think government should only tax people for minimal government
functions and shouldn't involve in social engineering where they take from one
group of people and favor the other group of people. </span><br><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'><o:p></o:p></span> <br><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'>As I said,
the government's responsibility is to create laws and regulations so that
everyone can compete fairly. However, government shouldn't correct the outcome by
forcing the winners to pay for the losers as long as the winners play it
fairly. The government can also create an environment which encourage the
winners to help the losers VOLUNTARILY through non government ways.</span><br><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'><o:p></o:p></span> <br><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'>In terms of
Obama and Romney, I don't like either one. I voted for Obama in 2008 since he promised
that he will cut the deficit in half. But he disappointed me with irresponsible
fiscal policies. So I am going to vote him out. If Romney does the same in next
four years, I will vote him out too until we found someone like Clinton.</span><br><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'><o:p></o:p></span> <br><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><span style='font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;'>I am sure the
country has learned a lesson from Iraq. Neither one of them will go into war as
freely as Bush. So the risk is small for another war like Iraq. Romney does have
some business experience especially rescue a failed business. Actually, I like
his running mate Paul Ryan the best since he at lease honestly talking about
our fiscal issues. It may cost him vote, but it is the right thing to do. We really
need a honest discussion about our country's fiscal condition before it is too
late like Greece. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We should do it for
our children and our grandchildren. <o:p></o:p></span><br><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">
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一剪梅发布于 2012-09-26 05:1116 楼#
To 17楼:<BR> <BR>Are you the same person that disputed with me on my other posting "<A href="http://www.atlanta168.com/forum/read.php?tid=12282">What If Gore Won the Election in Year 2000?</A> "? Do you have an ID? Why don't you use your ID to dispute with me? I like your rational, level-headed way of discussion? It would be more fun if I know your ID. <BR> <BR>By the way, your English is excellent!<BR> <BR>If the raised tax can only be used to pay off the debt, then we don't have to worry about the raised tax being abused.<BR> <BR>Rominey's war expense can be more expensive than Bush's or Obama combined. Not sure which evil is lesser evil. If you ask me, I would rather spend on the lazy losers than spending on killing middle eastern people with missles, guns,<BR>
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游客IP:12.250.185.*发布于 2012-09-26 03:4415 楼#
to 一剪梅,<br> <br>Great. At least we have something to agree on. However, I will not raise taxes withoug a balance budget amendament. You know that once taxes are raised, our politicians will find a way to spend it instead of paying off the debt. So we should vote everyone of them who over spend out of office. it was Republic's turn in 2008. and it is Obama's turn this time! If he has four more years, our deficit will go over $20 trillion!!!<br>
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一剪梅发布于 2012-09-25 21:0614 楼#
to 16 楼:<br> I totally agree with you. Cut government spending, have two year temporary tax raise for now to just pay off the debt. Rich people should share more responsibility of paying off the debt. After all, they benefited the most from the mideast oli wars, Bush tax cuts and they have the money to pay back their benefits. The poor people benefited from the governement spending too, but they have no moeny to pay.<br>
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游客IP:67.191.132.*发布于 2012-09-25 18:3313 楼#
to 一剪梅,<br> <br>The best way to reduce our deficit is not raise tax, but cut spending, especially wasteful spending. See the other post I have for publich employee's pension benefit. I am sure you wish to have that kind of retirement. But it will you and me paying for it. So wake up, government is not your solution, it is your problem!<br> <br>once our government cut it's spending significantly, such as 20-30%, then I am willing to raise tax rates (same to everyone) which can only be used to pay off our $16 trillion debt. once that's paidoff, the tax rate should be reduced immediatly.<br> <br>
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游客IP:67.191.132.*发布于 2012-09-25 18:2512 楼#
to 一剪梅,<br> <br>I DON'T think the current tax code is fair. it is not fair to high wage earners. low income families don't pay any taxes and have no skin in the game. They only want to get more from the system and will elect politicions who is willing to spend our money to buy votes. investment income is taxed at much lower tax rate compare to ordinary income. That's why a fair tax will fix it. Everyone no matter what income level pays for the same tax rate. No deductions what's so ever.<br> <br>for the same tax rate, it is true that 1% reduction of tax rate will give the high income family more back. But, this is America, we shouldn't purnish sucess.<br> <br>why should success people to pay more for our irresponsible government spending? I am all for more taxes to payoff our debt. But it should cut spending at 20 to 30% before any taxes should be increased.<br> <br>there is misunderstanding in SS tax. any high income people pays the same amount once it is over $100+k. However, they will get the same SS pay check too. so rich doesn't get a penny more in SS check then any of us.<br> <br>It is true that SS check payout is tilted toward low income. For every dollar SS tax, lower income earners get more than high income earners. You can study IRS publications to learn the details. When I say high income, I mean $70k - $110k since anything over that are considered the same for SS benefit. So I am not saying you are taking them away from Romeny, but the lower income family taking it from you. or we are taking it from our children and grandchildren since no matter how you slice it, we didn't pay enough to pay for our share of medicare and SS. Our children is going to pay for us and they may not get anything back!<br> <br> <br> <br>
Another problem with the supporters of deficit spending is to look at our public employees retirement liability. no one is talking about it, but you and I will have to pay for it!!<br> <br>Average age of public employee retirement = 60<br>Average lifespan of public employee = 83<br>Average yearly public employee pension payout = $40,000<br>Average total retirement plan payout (guaranteed wealth) of public employee = $920,000<br> <br>In suburban NY, cops retire with pensions of $60,000 to $80,000 by age 43, so they collect even longer, say 40 years $70,000 per year plus health care benefits, they are clearly worth $3 million each in top 5% in terms hidden wealth or OUR LIABILITY!!<br> <br>So, we need cut our government spending and cut all these public employees pension plan and health care plans! unfortunately, their Union wil support Obama to keep spend our tax payer's money!!<br>
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游客IP:67.191.132.*发布于 2012-09-25 17:019 楼#
To Dr. Liu,<br /><br />It is sounds unfair that Mr. Romney only pay 14% tax. A flat tax will make sure everyone pay the same percentage of the tax. However, something needs to be clarified, I think media is trying to confuse people since tax law is quite complicated and everyone can use it to their political advantages.<br />THERE ARE about half of the populations don't pay federal income taxes. it is not accurate to say some of them are paying more taxes than Romney. you can only do that by including payroll tax. However, most poor working class will get all their payroll tax back plus extra when they retire. High income (may not be rich if they spend all) earners will get less back than they pay into the system. So payroll tax shouldn't be included in tax calculation. It is actually a wealth distribution, or worse a Ponzi scheme, from high wage earners to low wage earners and from young generation to old generation.<br />According to this article, most rich people in this country are self made. They just work harder and smarter than us. So why should they pay more tax then we do, in fact, they already pay a lot more then we do on average (don't use a few isolated cases to generalize).<br />http://www.joshuakennon.com/the-hierarchy-of-the-rich-in-the-united-states/<br />"The most encouraging part of the story is that 80% to 90% of these ruling families are self-made, meaning they created their fortune themselves and didn’t inherit it. That is why I constantly harp on the fact that the United States is the greatest meritocracy the world has ever known despite our flaws."<br />So it is quite true that most of us has a fair chance in this country to become rich. You just have to work harder and smater.<br />By the way, from this article:<br />http://www.joshuakennon.com/the-new-elite-a-look-in-the-top-1-percent-of-wealth-in-the-united-states/<br />the top 1% are:<br />"For every 100 new elite members in the United States:<br />The average age is 47 years old<br />90 to 95 made the money themselves; only 5 to 10 inherited it<br />90 are college graduates; 10 are not<br />For those who are college graduates, 3 out of 4 did not attend an Ivy League school<br />8 are Asian (defined including those from Indian subcontinent); nearly 3x the rate found in the population<br />96 do not own a yacht; 4 do<br />50 haven’t furnished their homes in any way that would reflect their economic status"<br />if you house hold income is $$157,176 , you are quite rich (top 5%). I think most our Chinsee families who have a college degree and dual income are in this category. Congratulation, you are paying more than half of our country's tax burden! So enjoy it while you can. Your tax rate is going up so that we can support all our deficit spending and all these free loaders.
<div style="text-align: center;">I agree with
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14px; line-height: 25px; text-align: center; ">一剪梅. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14px; line-height: 25px; ">Another thing is that, a lot of homeowners are enjoying those re-financing programs with much lower interest rates or first-time buyer credits which Romney simply won't do. Although I am not one of the beneficiaries.</span></div>
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游客IP:12.250.185.*发布于 2012-09-24 12:406 楼#
Even with the wars and the tax cut, deficit in Bush 8 yeares are still about half of Obama 4 years. He over spend over $5 trillion. Even with Fed printing a few trillion dollars to reduce our government's borrowing cost. <br> <br>So Obama's goal is over spend, wealth distribution and socialism which will kill the American dream. American system should reward people who is succesful, not punish them and take their earnings away!<br> <br>
The most I'm afraid of Romney is if he sends more troops to mideast and start another war with Iran. We're defintely going down hell. <br>
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Obama may give the lazy bum lots of free candies too. But comparing with another mideast war, or multiple wars, the financial damage and personal safety threat from further angered terrists are much worse, and keep me awake a lot more than what the losers may eat off my taxes for free<br>
作者:Dr.OlympiaLiu 时间:2012年09月24日 06:04 查看全文